[brief comment on SMM Aluminum] Macro fundamentals Qi pessimistic Shanghai Aluminum fell more than 400 yuan / ton

During the Dragon Boat Festival, the United States announced tariffs on 50 billion of China's products, and then China made an equivalent counterattack statement. Shanghai Aluminum jumped 14380 yuan / ton in the morning. according to the trend law of futures, Shanghai Aluminum briefly rebounded under the closing of short positions. The high level was 14475 yuan per ton, but it was also a flash in the pan. macroscopically, the United States made a statement that if China levied a 50 billion tax on US products, the United States would further increase the scope of tariffs on Chinese products, the value of which could be as high as 400 billion. Sino-US trade war enters version 2.0; In terms of aluminum demand, the US government has decided to impose a preliminary anti-dumping duty of 167.16% on imports of Chinese ordinary aluminum alloy sheets; With regard to the cost of aluminum, alumina prices continued to decline, and under many conditions, although the social inventory of aluminum ingots fell by 32000 tons compared with last Thursday, it was still unable to prevent the bulls from leaving their positions to avoid risk, and the main force of Shanghai aluminum fell to around 14200 yuan per ton. In the afternoon, short positions fell into the well, triggering the second wave of bulls out of the market, aluminum prices hit 14070 yuan / ton, and finally closed at 14105 yuan / ton. Volume increased by 3104 to 248316, while position decreased by 12050 to 263724. Shanghai aluminum index reduced positions by 65280 hands to 660874 hands, mainly in recent months to reduce positions, far months to increase positions. Sino-US trade friction version 2.0 is more severe than in the previous period, pessimism in commodities will last longer than in the previous period, and aluminum prices have not yet reached the end of the cost. in addition, Lun Aluminum continued to fall in the European session, and aluminum prices are expected to remain under pressure. The next step is to test whether 14000 yuan / ton is supported.

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